The Trump effect is starting to be felt on the oil market

The gross producer countries and the International Energy Agency are lowering the prospects for global consumption.

According to both the OPEC and the AIE, trade tensions will contract global economic activity and therefore lead to a lower gross consumption. It is the traditional scheme: the loss of confidence of industrialists leads to caution, the very likely slowdown in production processes and therefore a less important demand in oil to run the machine.

According to the various forecasts, demand would only increase 790,000 barrels per day over the year against more than a million initially planned. The growth of global demand would slow even more in 2026, mainly pulled by China and India but insufficiently to maintain the general dynamics.

Should we expect a direct impact on oil prices on the world market? For the moment, operators are waiting to see how the American policy will evolve and everything will depend on the commercial negotiations which will take place within 90 days, a period of respite fixed by Donald Trump in the application of his prohibitive customs duties. And if there are many observants on the alert, it is the petromonarchies, the Emirates and other states of the Persian Gulf that live from the oil rent. It would be illogical that these countries, whose public budgets are fed by the income of oil production, do not react to the decline in demand by the rest of the world.

Their attitude will be to do everything to maintain the courses of black gold. To do this, they would play on production volumes and the market would then be organized according to the rule of “everything that is rare is expensive” ‘, with the repercussions that can be imagined on the prices of petrol to the pump. Let’s not panic because we are not there yet. For the moment, the price of a barrel is favorable because, with a downturn, we buy our cheaper oil. But for how long? After the inflation generated by customs duties, the increase or at least the volatility of fuel prices at the pump could be the next effect of Trump policy on the world economy.