General situation
This Wednesday, flow from East to Southeast irregular and unstable on the sidelines of an area of depressor soft at 1013 HPA located west of 65 ° west longitude.
Thursday, always an eastern and stormy east flow in southeast on the fringes of the soft depression at 1014 HPA positioned at 27 ° N and 67 ° W with anarchic wind conditions.
Friday, filling and displacement of the soft to the west, at 70 ° W of longitude. Resumption of the alizés diet in the vicinity of the Antilles.
Weather at sea for the Paprec deckchair
This Wednesday morning at 7 am, almost the whole fleet is stuck in an area of depressing soft for the latter hundred miles before arrival. The fleet was tightened in this weather context, with the latecomers who were able to catch up a little by grouping all in front. The suspense is therefore total with several changes in recent hours in the ranking. The classification is also very tight with the first 15 duos which are held at less than 50 miles only. Even the duo Ellie Driver/Oliver Hill on Women Engineering Society was able to catch up a little, always keeping more air than the competitors at the head of the gondola. They were less than 200 miles from the head of the race this Wednesday morning. Now, it is the duo Martin the Pope/Mathilde Géron in Tomorrow that makes the race in mind, just over 280 miles from the finish in Saint-Barthélemy, by sailing tribord at around 5-6 knots in this soft. The duo is closely followed by Romain Bouillard/Irina Gracheva on picking up the Moon 2nd, then by four duos being held in only a few miles. They are therefore mostly in a pocket handkerchief and will be able to enjoy a little more temporarily in this soft, between two petole situations. The ranking may therefore move several times over the next 48 hours, until arrival.
Wednesday May 7
Wind conditions improve this Wednesday with a wind which resumes a little vigor to blow between 8 and 12 knots, but it will remain very irregular in strength and in direction, before molishing especially at the end of the evening/early night. It will oscillate between East-South-East and South-South-East with many sailing settings and maneuvers to be made. The sailors’ progression speeds will continue to vary a lot according to their position on the water so that regular changes in the classification are expected. As the West Indian arc approaches, a road close to the direct line by passing a little southern seems to be a good option, where for the moment sailors still keep a little air on their way. A more north road can also be an option, but there again there can be surprises in this soft situation. Some skippers will still find themselves in the petole, where at times they might no longer advance at all. However, it will be concentrated with the passage of several grains in this unstable and stormy situation. Others will be able to enjoy a little more air. The “luck” parameter therefore takes into account in these last hours of racing.
-Thursday May 8
The sailors will continue their descent to Saint-Barth in complicated wind conditions at the end of the night and early morning. The Alizé will not be determined to regain service with an east wind to southeast always as irregular which will molli by taking a little from the left, so that in average, some models see this trade wind falling at only 6 knots at times. Duos will progress in slow motion, some enjoying wind conditions a little more favorable than the others according to their position on the water. The classification will continue to move and with this weak wind. However, some skippers will be able to resume a little air during the day on Thursday with an east wind at around 10 knots expected gradually. By sailing ported banged with this Alizé d’Est-Sud-Est diet, part of the fleet could pass south of Barbuda before branching north to reach the long-awaited arrival. The first sailors could therefore restore ground this Thursday at the very end of the day, if the wind is favorable to them. However, this complex weather situation with these erratic winds make it difficult to estimate with precision the time of arrival (ETA) of the first skippers. It will still be necessary to wait a little to specify ETA. The suspense will be put to the end since our skippers could all arrive in a pocket handkerchief, on a slice probably 5-6 hours apart only.
Friday May 9
Friday, it will be a priori the final day of racing for the fleet with an expected arrival during these 24 hours. The weather conditions could slightly improve for these last hours of racing, with a soft that could gradually resolve, leaving room for more air and flow. The Alizés diet should thus resume, with a thrilling final stretch for our skippers, who will see the finish line get closer and faster. A dozen knots in eastern regime could accompany our sailors until the end expected at the end of the day this Friday French time.
Saturday May 10
The last skippers should arrive at the latest at the very beginning of this Saturday morning, where wind conditions will have been favorable the day before with up to 10 to 15 knots of wind on average, under this resumption of the Alizés diet in the east sector. For our sailors who will have chosen a road further north, they will be able to finish this stronghold to have a good rhythm, in order to descend to Saint-Barthélemy.
For more information, go to the site https://marine.meteoconsult.fr
Cyrille Duchesne, meteorologist the weather channel / Meteo Consult
