While the EU reveals its strategy to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, the challenges remain immense, between diversification of geopolitical sources and tensions.
The European Union is preparing to present an ambitious plan aimed at drastically reducing its imports of energy from Russia. A major challenge, as Moscow remains a key supplier, especially for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which represents almost 20 % of European supplies in 2024. After imposing a Russian oil embargo, Brussels is now looking to limit gas deliveries, while avoiding weakening its economy.
The diversification of supply sources constitutes the main axis of this strategy. The United States, already the first LNG supplier to Europe, could see its share increase, despite persistent trade tensions with the Trump administration. Some European officials also mention compensatory agreements, such as massive American soybean purchases, to appease transatlantic relations.
However, the divisions between Member States complicate the situation. Some countries, such as Hungary, have close ties with Moscow, while others, like France, have increased their Russian LNG imports in recent months. The French terminals, including that of Dunkirk, play a central role in this logistics, which makes any coercive measure difficult to implement without unanimous consensus of the twenty-seven.
Faced with these obstacles, an increase in customs duties on Russian hydrocarbons could be privileged, rather than a pure and simple embargo. At the same time, the EU highlights its progress: the share of Russian gas in its imports has increased from 45 % to 18 % since the start of the war in Ukraine. But the road remains long to reach total energy independence, while Brussels intends to protect itself against any hostile influence in this strategic field.
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