« DIn February 2022, we bought Russian gas for an amount greater than the sum of money that we gave aid to Ukraine. It is strong of this hardly brilliant observation that the European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, the Danish Dan Jorgensen, exposed his plan to gradually get out of Russian energies (gas, oil and uranium). The figures are to be updated, but, in wholesale, since February 2022, Vladimir Putin was able to have about 200 billion euros from Europeans while the Ukrainians were helped by Europe up to 134.9 billion euros in kyiv, according to data from last February.
To illustrate the extent of the financial chasm, the Danish commissioner prefers to use a military metaphor: these sums paid in Moscow would be equivalent to the purchase of “2,400 new F-35”, these American hunting planes at the cutting edge of technology. Last year, Brussels paid 1.8 billion euros monthly to Moscow. An embarrassing paradox when Russia supreme opponent and the main threat to European security.
Read too How Europe wants to pay less for its energyFaced with this untenable situation, the Commission therefore presented its roadmap, known as Repowreu, to get Europe out of its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. Progressive weaning of the Member States. First act: the introduction of new rules on the “traceability” of Russian gas – understand a system allowing to follow the origin of the molecules which circulate in European pipes. It is not entirely superfluous when you know that Russia goes through intermediaries – Azerbaijan or India – to continue to sell its resources …
Spot contracts banned at the end of 2025
Second act, more radical: the outright prohibition of new contracts with Russian suppliers (whether gas transported by gas pipeline or LNG, this liquefied natural gas transported by boat). The so -called “spot” existing contracts – these punctual purchases on short -term markets – would be banned from the end of 2025. Finally, the last act, the most ambitious: the total judgment of Russian gas imports by the end of 2027.
“It is not an easy task,” admits Commissioner Jorgensen. This has challenges, but it is doable, “he said, promising support for the Member States” when and where it is necessary “. A diplomatic way of admitting the tensions to come. The plan presented must still be adopted by the 27, which promises tight negotiations.
Read too Nuclear Europe: back all? Unlike sanctions that require unanimity, energy measures can be voted by a qualified majority. “These measures do not require being periodically renewed such as sanctions,” says Jorgensen. A barely veiled way of signifying that Hungary will not, this time, will indefinitely block the process, it is believed. However, the Treaty on the functioning of the EU in article 194-2 introduces a downside: a Member State has the right to “determine the conditions of exploitation of its energy resources, its choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy supply”.
This is precisely a heavy point of friction. Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, will be based on this paragraph and he may not be the only one on the board to defeat this proposal from the Commission. Its country depends at 80 % of gas and 60 % of Russian oil, not to mention the technology of the country’s only nuclear power plant. Viktor Orban categorically refuses to cut this vital energy cord for its economy. He will certainly seize the EU Court of Justice against this attempt to tarnish his sovereignty in energy matters.
Budapest always more linked to Moscow
He also rejected the alternatives proposed by Europeans, especially since his relations with Croatia (a possible routing was envisaged) are not excellent. Result: Budapest recently signed new agreements to guarantee its continuous access to Russian energy and opposed all European sanctions which involved an energy component. During discussions on oil embargo, Orban compared the economic impact for its country to a “nuclear bomb”. An opposition which had forced Brussels to concede exemptions to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
The PAKS nuclear power plant, the only active in Hungary, and which produces 35 to 40 % of national electricity, is of Russian design and is based on VVER technology (pressure water reactor), a Soviet heritage. With the construction of PAKS II, provided by Rosatom, the Russian nuclear giant, the country will soon be dependent at 80 % of Moscow for its electricity production.
How and why force Hungary to cut with the Russians if the government does not want it? “I do not point anyone, dodges the Danish commissioner. I am still a little embarrassed that last year, we still paid 23 billion euros in Russia, while she is at war with our friends in Ukraine. And it is also our own security. For me, it must be at the top of our agenda. »»
-We will still notice that the European Union does not have the same pupmers when it comes to buying gas from Azerbaijan, whose behavior towards Haut-Karabakh Armenians is ethnic cleaning.
Donald Trump, a not so reliable ally
The other question is that of dependence changes: cut with Russian oil, why not? But buying American LNG in turn when you know the hegemonic aims of Donald Trump, is that really a good idea? The American president today uses customs duties to order his partners in the world. Who says he will not use the LNG lever tomorrow to achieve his ends with Greenland or any other vassalization subject that will be passed through his head?
However, the battle is just beginning. Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), transported by boat, partially compensated for the drop in flows via gas pipelines, in particular thanks to the Yamal LNG factory infrastructure in Siberia. Russia has also developed its “ghost fleet”, these ships which bypass sanctions by transporting oil outside international radars.
To counter these maneuvers, Brussels plans a maritime mission as part of the EU’s common security and defense policy. The objective: to identify “suspicious behavior” and monitor illegal activities at sea. As for nuclear power, the Commission provides for restrictions on new supply contracts co -signed by the European supply agency. A “European Radio-Isotopes valley” (a European production center) is even envisaged to secure supply to medical isotopes.
Read too Europe in the face of the titanic challenge of its electrification
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Answer
This gradual outing of Russian energies is part of a wider strategy aimed at accelerating the energy transition from Europe. By deploying more renewable energies and improving energy efficiency, the EU hopes to save 45 billion euros on its energy prices this year.
But time is running out. The 23 billion euros paid to Russia last year for its hydrocarbons confirm that the path to energy independence remains strewn with pitfalls. And as long as Europe has not completely cut this financial cord with Moscow, its diplomacy will remain vitiated by a fundamental contradiction: funding both the Ukrainian resistance and, indirectly, the Russian aggressor.
