“It’s encouraging for the future, but …”
Therefore, can we really see in the exchange between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky a decisive step towards peace in Ukraine? “”We don’t really know the content of their conversation, it remains very difficult to say “, nuance Sven biscop, specialist in international relations (Ugent).
According to the expert, it is however positive that the two leaders have returned to dialogue after their “disastrous” meeting in the White House-a tense meeting, orchestrated by Trump himself. “”Apparently, they had a good discussion. This can be an encouraging sign and even good news for the future, but it will probably be very difficult to draw concrete effects“He believes.
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As for whether this exchange could change Donald Trump’s approach to conflict, prudence remains in order. “”So far, Trump has mainly exercised threats to Ukraine rather than Russia “underlines Biscop, recalling that the former president hinted more than that he would cut the aid to kyiv in the event of disagreement, rather that he would not put Moscow under pressure.
The announcement made by Donald Trump according to which Ukraine and Russia are “very close to an agreement” can therefore leave skeptical. “”It is also a way of putting pressure on kyiv, but it can also simply be his imagination, he analyzes. With Trump, you never know very well what is real and what is invention. He recently said that several heads of state had called him to congratulate him – which was completely false. “
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Even though a rapprochement begins, Trump hardens the tone towards Volodymyr Zelensky. Multiplying criticism, the former president recently accused kyiv of braking the end of the war, thus placing the Ukrainian leader under maximum pressure, while Ukraine depends more than ever on US military support in the face of the Russian invasion.
This scene of rapprochement of the Saint-Pierre basilica may have marked a symbolic gesture, but there is no guarantee that peace in Ukraine is now at hand.
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Putin’s air promises
At the very moment of his meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump gave an interview-shock Timeasserting bluntly that Ukraine should “make a cross on Crimea”. “Russia will keep Crimea. And Zelensky understands that,” he hammered, taking over the Russian argument that kyiv’s membership in NATO has triggered war.
Despite these pressures, and while the mayor of kyiv was open to the idea of a “temporary” exchange of territories, Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed on Friday evening that Crimea would remain Ukrainian: “Our position remains unchanged […] All temporarily occupied territories belong to Ukraine, “he insisted in front of journalists.
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According to Sven Biscop, you have to remain cautious: as long as Moscow does not really stop its attacks, talk about the ceasefire remains premature. “”So far, all Putin’s promises have remained in the air “he recalls, doubting that the Russian president respects a possible agreement, even signed. “”The Russians will quickly test the limits. And it’s not certain that Trump would react. ”
As for the probable concessions required by kyiv, BISCOP notes that the legal recognition of the annexation of the Crimea could be part of the compromise, despite the flagrant injustice of the situation: “An agreement often reflects military reality, not justice, he underlines. On the other hand, if Trump pushes to an agreement, he will have to assume that the United States, and therefore indirectly NATO, will remain involved. Impossible to imagine Washington totally behind. “
Finally, a ceasefire could momentarily freeze the front, offering the Ukrainian army a strategic breathing. “”It would be an opportunity to rest the exhausted soldiers, to reorganize the forces, and to continue to strengthen Ukraine militarily “continues Biscop, insisting on the need for allies to maintain a credible deterrence with Moscow.
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An uncertain, but crucial ceasefire
And even if a cease-fire was born in the coming months, nothing would guarantee lasting peace. It would be more a temporary stabilization, but not necessarily a final regulation.
The rest remains highly unpredictable. And it is not excluded that Russia refuses to sign, or that an agreement is concluded but quickly raped. “It would already be a huge step if we obtained a ceasefire. But the real question is whether it would be respected,” Slides the expert.
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On the American side, it is clear that Donald Trump, in the presidential campaign, would see a cease-fire as a major political asset, whatever his solidity.
As for Ukraine, despite increasing pressure, a frontal refusal seems unlikely at this stage. “”You have to be realistic: today, there is no scenario in which kyiv would manage to release all his territory “biscop analysis. The losses suffered, especially in Crimea and in Donbass, seem unfortunately endowed for a long time. It remains to be seen whether in this context, Ukraine will be able to obtain enough guarantees to prevent Russia from knocking again.
