Trump’s customs policy could make the world trade back up 1.5%, according to the WTO

In these annual forecasts, the World Trade Organization revives its growth anticipations for international trade. Uncertainty around global trade launched by US President Donald Trump could “Have severe negative consequences”especially for the most vulnerable savings, the OMC director general, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned on Wednesday. The temporary suspension of American punitive customs duties reduces the contraction of exchanges but the decline in the global trade in goods could reach up to 1.5% in volume in 2025, depending on the customs policy of Donald Trump, according to the annual forecasts of the World Trade Organization.

“I am very concerned about the uncertainty surrounding commercial policy, including the dead end between the United States and China. The recent de -escalation of pricing tensions has temporarily lightened the pressure on world trade ”said Okonjo-Iweala, in a statement. “However, persistent uncertainty threatens to slow down global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, especially for the most vulnerable economies”she added.

“Faced with this crisis”the WTO head considers that members of the organization “Have an unprecedented opportunity to breathe dynamism into the organization” But also, among others, “To promote fair competition conditions” et “To adapt our agreements in order to better respond to current global realities”.

Forget the expansion

At the start of the year, the WTO expected continuous expansion of world trade in 2025 and 2026, the trade in goods increasing at the same rate as world GDP and the trade in services increasing more quickly. However, the large number of new customs duties introduced since January has prompted the WTO economists to reassess the commercial situation, which has resulted in a substantial lowering of their forecasts for the trade in goods and a less significant reduction in their prospects for trade in services.

“Under current conditions”namely taking into account the suspension announced by the American president Trump of his colossal customs rights against the rest of the world, with the exception of China, “The volume of the global trade in goods should decrease by 0.2% in 2025”before displaying a “Modest recovery” 2.5% in 2026, according to the WTO. But the organization stresses that“There are important risks of deterioration, such as the application of reciprocal customs duties and the broader propagation of uncertainty surrounding policies, which could lead to a decline in the world of world even more marked goods (1.5%) and harm the least advanced countries turned towards export”.

The report contains for the first time a forecast concerning the trade in services, which should increase by 4.0% in 2025, or approximately 1 percentage point less than expected. In 2025, the impact of recent pricing measures on the trade in goods should be very different from one region to another.

Particularly marked drop

Under current conditions, “The drop should be particularly marked in North America, where exports should fall by 12.6%”details the WTO. Imports from this region should fall by 9.6% this year. Asia should display growth “modest” Exports and imports this year (1.6% for both), as well as Europe (1.0% for exports and 1.9% for imports).

According to the WTO, disturbances in exchanges between the United States and China should lead to “A significant embezzlement of exchanges, which arouses concerns among third -party markets as to increased competition from China”. Exports of Chinese goods should increase by 4 to 9% in all regions outside North America, due to this reorientation of trade.