After having recorded growth of 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the‘Moroccan economy would have experienced a revival of activity in the first quarter of 2025, with a planned increase of 4.2% of the value added outside agriculture, in annual variation, according to the last economic note published by the High-Commissariat à Plan (HCP). The dynamics of interior request would have remained supported and the strongly negative contribution of external exchanges would have reduced to -1.1 points, under the effect of a sensitive slowdown in imports and a low export dynamics.
By business branch, these would mainly merchant servicesin particular those of accommodation, extractive industries and construction activities, which would have drawn growth, with an increase in their added values of 13.2%, 6.7% and 6.4% respectively in annual variations. Manufacturing activity, more dependent on the impulses of foreign tradewould have experienced a moderation of its growth with a reduction of 0.2 point of its contribution to the economic growth. In total, and given a recovery of 3.1% of agricultural activities, the gross domestic product would have increased by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2025, in annual variation.
The household request would have remained the base of this performance. Improvement of income linked to socio-fiscal measures, including increases in wages in the private sector and public administrations and the downward revision of income tax, would have increased an increase in their consumption expenses of 4.5%, despite a consumer price resumption.
L’inflation would indeed have reached +2.2%, in the first quarter of 2025, instead of +0.7% a quarter earlier. This development would have been the result of the 3.7% increase in food prices and 1.1% of those of non -food products. The acceleration of food inflation would have been the result of the increase in basic food prices. In particular, the contribution to the increase in the prices of meat, persistent for more than four quarters (+1 point) and those of fresh fish (+0.2 point) as well as fresh vegetables (+0.1 contribution point, against -1 point a quarter earlier) would have contributed significantly to this recovery. Price adjustments, especially tobacco (+2.9% in January), would also have reinforced this trend, although to a lesser degree. In parallel, the prices of non -food products would have displayed a moderate increase, mainly driven by the 1% increase in energy prices, after -1.1% in the previous quarter. The underlying component of inflation, which excludes energy prices, prices subject to state intervention and volatile prices, would have slightly slowed down to 2.3%, after +2.5%, reflecting a lesser dynamic of manufactured products.
Reinforced monetary easing and embellished from the stock market
The monetary mass would have continued to grow in the first quarter of 2025, although more moderately, with an increase of 6.5% against 8% a quarter earlier. THE Need the liquidity of banks would have reduced below the peak recorded at the end of 2024, thanks to the reflux of fiduciary traffic, following the operation of Tax amnesty Launched in December 2024. Banking liquidity would have strengthened, thus reducing the refinancing needs and attenuating this structural pressure. Claims on the economy would have slightly decelerated, displaying an increase of 6.5%, in the first quarter of 2025, in annual sliding, after +6.9% in the previous quarter. Official reserve assets would also have slowed down, posting growth of 2.3%, while net claims on the central administration would have continued their increase at a significant rate, translating an increase in the monetary debt of the treasury by 6%.
-Bank Al-Mghryib would have maintained during the same period its monetary easing policy for the third consecutive quarter since June 2024, reducing its rate of 25 basic points to 2.25% in March 2025. Interest rates on the interbank market would have stabilized at the level of master ratemarking a decline of 53 base points of their average level in annual variation at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Successive reductions in the key rate in 2024 would also have impacted the credit rates, down on average of 13 base points in the first quarter of 2025. At the same time, rates on the contract for the auction of treasury bills would have known notable reductions, Points and -62 base points respectively for matures at 1 year, 5 years and 10 years. On the exchange market, the Dirham would have appreciated 4.2% and 1.1% respectively vis-à-vis the euro and the US dollar.
At the same time, the equity market would have recorded a notable performance at the beginning of 2025, extending its dynamics initiated in 2023. Investors, including self -confidence bourse would have been strengthened, would have continued to perceive the market positively, in a context of a new monetary relaxation in March 2025. The Masi index would have increased by 36.5% in annual sliding, in the first quarter of 2025, after an increase of 22.2% in the previous quarter, while market capitalization would have increased by 37.8%. This performance would have been mainly due to the rise in prices in several sides, including transport, mines, real estate and health. The liquidity of the market would have continued to grow, with a leap of 186.5% of the volume of transactions in annual variation.
Maintaining economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 under risk
The national economy would display an increase of 3.8%, in the second quarter of 2025, carried by the recovery of agricultural activity and by the resilience of merchant services which would continue to benefit from the still sustained dynamics of domestic demand. Manufacturing industries would evolve in a less promising international context, but would be supported by strengthening the activity of the food industry and career mineral industries. In construction, the dynamics would remain strong, stimulated by a demand always well oriented in public works.
Domestic demand would remain the main engine of growth in the second quarter of 2025. The expansion of consumer and investment spending would continue at the rate of 4.2% and 5.1% respectively, in annual variations, in a context of conjunction of fiscal and monetary policies. The contribution of foreign trade would remain negative, translating a simultaneous slowdown in exports and imports, but would weigh less strongly on growth compared to the end of 2024.
The growth of growth for the second quarter of 2025 remains surrounded by strong uncertainty. The national economy remains exposed to the potential shock linked to the change in the American tariff policy. However, the recent decision to postpone 90 days to the entry into force of the pricing increases announced at the beginning of April for all the countries concerned, with the exception of China, could temporarily mitigate direct impacts on global economic activity. Despite this period, anticipated effects are already noticeable on the markets, in particular through the volatility of energy raw material prices, tensions on industrial activity, especially in Europe and fluctuations on international financial centers. Our forecast scenario for this quarter does not yet fully take into account all the adjustments in progress, in a context where the reactions of major economies and industrial companies continue to evolve. The probability of a very short term shock, although deferred, remains, however, presents.
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